The Effect of Inflation and Interest Rate on Dollars Exchange (January-December 2018)

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of macroeconomic conditions, the sample of this study is secondary research in a causality affect, namely explaining the possibility of a causal relationship between variables that include Inflation, SBI interest rates, against the exchange rate of the Rupiah. The type of research used is descriptive research with a quantitative approach. Determination of samples is based on 2018 monthly time series data of twelve month sam-ples with the sole purpose of achieving and maintaining the stability of the Rupiah value. This study uses the method of multiple linear regression analysis, Simultaneous test results (F test) shows that Inflation (TI), the SBI interest rate sim-ultaneously has a significant effect on the Rupiah exchange rate (exchange rate) and the partial test results (t test), indi-cating that the variable ( TI) and SBI interest rates have a significant effect on the Rupiah exchange rate. But in this case the effect of (TI) and interest rates on the exchange rate is not so large, meaning that it can still be controlled or balanced so that the exchange rate does not result in economic congestion be it exports or other investments do not cause inflation and decrease in interest rates. Influence (IT) on the exchange rate of the US Dollar to the rupiah the inflation variable has a probability value of 0.0453 with a confidence level approaching the 95% confidence level of 0.05 probability. This means that the inflation rate (IT) has a significant effect on the dollar exchange rate to the rupiah. the influence signifi-cantly indicates that inflation is likely to occur in the 2018 period but did not have a major impact on the rising or falling in the dollar price of the exchange rate at that time.